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Developer-led Landscape: Complexity Will Drive Autonomous Development

Nov 30, 2022 · < 1  min

Peak DevOps will cause consolidation and 500 corporate failures whose fallout seeds a 3rd wave of Software Industrialization driven by a multi-trillion dollar Autonomous Development market.

Classic xkcd comic on the “efficiency” of automation:


Complexity and agility has created a “Peak DevOps” moment which lowers developer job satisfaction in the face of sluggish, pre-inflation wage increases.

Subsequently, companies will face – and then unsuccessfully fight – higher costs to build and maintain software systems that under-deliver against unrelenting user expectations.

Peak DevOps will cause a pivotal transition for the developer industry.

Platform consolidation and startup over-capitalization prefaces failures of ~500 sub-$10M ARR developer companies, whose fallout will:
Seed a 3rd wave of software industrialization driven by Autonomous Software Development.

Autonomous Software Development would launch a multi-trillion dollar industry, mint a plethora of new super star engineering founders, and cause a seismic power shift that could supplant existing platforms provided by Microsoft, IBM, Gitlab, Atlassian, Oracle, Snowflake, Informatica, Tibco, Software AG, and Confluent.

In this article I wrote for my Substack newsletter, I outlined the nature of complexity in software development, how automation is applied in the software process, the potential for autonomous software development, introduced an autonomous development marketecture, and discussed the early vendors that make up this new landscape.

Read the full article and explore the entire Dev-led Landscape on Substack.